What does the term 'illusion of control' refer to in the context of cognitive bias?

The term 'illusion of control' in the context of cognitive bias refers to the tendency for individuals, particularly experts, to overestimate their ability to influence or control outcomes in situations that are largely governed by chance or external factors. This cognitive bias can lead experts to have an inflated sense of confidence in their predictions and decisions, as they believe their expertise grants them greater influence over uncertain events than is justified.

In this scenario, the choice that aligns with the concept of ‘illusion of control’ presents the idea that experts may not accurately assess their true level of influence or control over outcomes. This misjudgment can result in risky behaviors or poor decision-making, as they might proceed under the false assumption that they can manage variables they actually cannot.

Consequently, the other options do not accurately capture the essence of the 'illusion of control.' For instance, believing that experts can predict future outcomes with certainty implies a straightforward confidence in expertise rather than a bias related to control. Similarly, the notion that experts think external factors are mainly responsible for bias shifts focus away from the personal overestimation aspect, and the idea that technology will manage biases does not directly pertain to the subjective overconfidence in personal control.